Rowan's Future of Choice

Steven Pinker at Poptech: "If you could pass the guacamole, that would be awesome!"

Being at Poptech was just as exhilarating as the previous two years. We heard many presentations of re-mixed ideas (Portable Light), and some clever uses of Internet technologies (Kiva.org). We stood and clapped and nodded knowingly to each other in the cozy Camden, Maine Opera House. We were in the zone.

It was also fundamentally different from 2005 and 2006. We sorely missed Bob Metcalfe's closing critique. The master of ceremonies breathlessly announced his new direction for the confab: faster implementation of more solutions (the 'Accelerator'); 50 additional non-paying participants (quaintly called ‘Fellows’); and 75 percent higher conference fees for the rest of us (Ouch!).

The influence of big-brand sponsors continues to grow; Lexus, Nokia, Yahoo, and eBay were among the corporate contributors who attended en masse. (I love my free smart phone.)

PopTech is transforming from a scruffy meet-up of techies into an elite club of global shakers. As good as it is, none of us really needs such a pilgrimage. We have the resources and access to accomplish anything we want right where we are. But being in the same room with so many special people, that was awesome!
---
Salmon Art credit; Poptech.org; Portable Light Project; Kiva.org; Robert Metcalfe; Steven Pinker
 

Decision theory research

Here is a list of additional resources. An example:

Abstract: There are many conceptualizations and formalizations of decision making. In this paper we compare classical decision theory with qualitative decision theory, knowledge-based systems and belief-desire-intention models developed in artificial intelligence and agent theory. They all contain representations of information and motivation. Examples of informational attitudes are probability distributions, qualitative abstractions of probabilities, knowledge, and beliefs.

Link to resources

Frequently asked questions... and answers

wiseGEEK is a web site that provides free and clear answers to common questions.

I asked, "What is Decision Theory?" and got this concise answer.

Some other questions and answers in which you might be interested:

What is Thin-Slicing?
What is Foreshadowing?
How Should I Choose a PIN?
What Should I Consider when Buying a Gift for Valentine's Day?
Where Does the Practice of Wishing on a Shooting Star Come From?

wiseGEEK home page

Decision making: is it cone- or diamond-shaped?

This past July I posted here about an Industry Week article by John R. Brandt on corporate decision making. The magazine published my letter in the October issue,  here.

My bottom line: corporate decision making--like life--is imperfect but has its good moments.

IW is a worthwhile mag. You can subscribe free, or visit their home page.

Less is more

Lately, I have been feeling overwhelmed by the growing "river of information" coming to me each day through my blog and news feedreader, which is called Bloglines. ( A feedreader brings new Internet material to you as it is created, instead of having to find it yourself.)

What started out as five unread feeds each day had turned into 50, then 200. I had started tagging them so I could come back later, but like most things I put off, I rarely did.

So I deleted the whole lot and started over with those I really like. Contrary to blogging wisdom, I like the occasional post over the fire hose approach. Months ago I gave up on  hyperactive bloggers like Robert Scoble and Steve Rubel. Good as they are, they are just too much. I quietly unsubscribed.

I have also given up on tech bloggers who constantly talk about the cool friends they are hanging out with in tony locations. I'd rather buy a magazine.

I am on the fence about the Tom Peters Wire Service--the stuff his staff pulls together is really high quality, and generally unique, but also high volume.

What had grown to about 50 feeds is now a mostly different set of about eight. My new list includes Steve Hardy's Creative Generalist, The Roadhouse blues podcast, The ChangeThis newsletter (in temporary hiatus), and Steve Gillmor's Gillmor Gang podcast.

I may be missing a lot, but I feel much better about what I am not missing.

A new source of judgment, sensitivity, wit, and charm

I have written several posts about data overload and how it paralyzes us. There is too much "noise" from too many sources. We have too many choices we can afford, and not enough time or brain power to make sense of them.

A new Internet tool has the potential to help filter the noise. Top 10 Sources uses "open ranking and sorting services that rely upon robust technical methodologies to determine importance and relevance of sites." 

What does this mean? What is a robust technical methodology? Who determines what is important and relevant to you and me?

"...we publish a daily "Top 10" site of the best newsfeeds on the Internet. Each day, our team of editors picks a topic." They are hired "for their judgment, sensitivity, wit, and charm."

I have to put this on my list of Top 10 Hype Sites, but this type of thing could be an early precursor to something really useful.

As usual these days, most of the web chatter related to this service is about source attribution and ownership--very important issues. It is not about the value of the service to us. We will eventually get to that. (For example, Techcrunch blog from 1/22/06.)

Thanks to the Tom Peters blog for the pointer.

"Should"-ing all over themselves

Decision making is a promise to act, to do, to fulfill. It is only partially a data processing activity. I see the data processing comparison a lot: ambitious pronouncements that more information, presented more graphically or symbolically, should result in better decisions. Here is an example from something called the RFid Gazette:
"By implementing animated 2-D and 3-D graphics, it will become possible to comprehend large amounts of data quickly; this is because the human mind is more adept at processing information when it is presented in a visual manner.  Thus, by implementing information visualization techniques correctly, DoD [Department of Defense] ] hopes to improve the scope of its monitoring, recognize trends in a better manner, and reduce time taken to search and locate. This should ultimately lead to quicker decision making and improved communication."

RFid Gazette link

Edward MacNeal

MacNeal's book looks like a great resource for anyone serious about mining this topic. 825 pages!

MacNeal's Master Atlas of Decision Making: A New Kind of Guide to the Maps People Use in Making Up Their Minds

His web site is here.