Rowan's Future of Choice

The 7 Basic Mistakes We Make as Deciders

Here is a list of common mistakes. I will write more about them in the coming days and weeks. Comments are welcome.

1. Letting others make your decisions. UPDATE is here
   
2. Confusing decision with action.
3. Believing decisions are irreversible, or that choices are final.
4. Rolling several small decisions into one large one.
5. Accepting barriers that are imaginary or insignificant.
6. Misunderstanding the risks of one choice over another.
7. Guessing about the future.

Time to learn

Incrementalism, which I define as "doing a little more to get a little more," can be a bane or a boost. When we seek the next higher step, the somewhat better design, or the higher success rate, we are betting that the benefits of the increment are worth any costs and delays.

In part, it is our simmering dissatisfaction with the status quo that makes us try to improve--as people, as companies, and as a nation. Money and material goods can be manipulated. Time is our only fixed resource; it can't be stored, stretched, or condensed. So when we waste one unit of time trying for an incrementally better solution, we have spent something we cannot recover.

The way to beat the clock is to use each increment to learn. Learning makes the next decision smarter, and hopefully, better.

We may even learn that what we already have is pretty good.

Drawing

I know what I do not know

Do you understand the car mechanic’s description of what needs to be fixed? Do you understand what your doctor is saying, or your options for treatment? What exactly is “degenerative disc disease”?

Most of us believe that our lives are so complex that the language we use to make decisions must also be complex. The experts we seek to help us decide can make us feel lost. We could take classes to learn how to talk in the expert’s language, but advancements in fields like law and technology are too fast to keep up. We can—and do—hire go-betweens to help us unravel it. There is a vast industry of software programs, financial advisors, consultants, and help desks. Or, we can go with our gut feeling, and hope for the best.

If you are an expert advisor who wants to help others make better decisions, try the following. If you are someone who wants better advice, ask your advisor to read this post.

• Speak in plain language. If you frequently have to define for someone a word you are using, or explain a concept to get him to understand what you are saying, try developing ahead of time a few simple translations.
• Provide real life examples showing options and possible results. Tell stories of real people in real situations.
• Acknowledge the importance of emotions in making decisions. Information and facts are important, but only go so far. Talk about how it feels.
• Stick to what you actually know. As a recognized expert in your field, you may be tempted to speculate or wander beyond your knowledge. (After all, you are the expert.) Practice saying the words, “I do not know.”

Graphic credit CDC link

From Stories to Explories: Part 1, Setting Goals

Fundamentally, decisions are about change. Each time we make a decision—whether it is about which new technology to buy or new business to get into, we have the potential to alter our future in some way. (I say “potential,” because a decision without action counts for nothing.)

Absent a decision, two things can happen: either nothing changes and we continue on our current path, or changes happen to us, not by us.  The first decision is simply the decision to change.

The second decision is “What are our goals or objectives² for the change?”  A goal or objective may be experimental, such as “Figure out how to turn beach sand into a digital device component.” Or it may be concrete and specific, such as “Become the industry leader in same-day package delivery.” Both types of goals or objectives share a look forward to what could be, not what already is. They become milestones for guiding and measuring progress.

Business leaders who think strategically have an opportunity to make decisions about different—and hopefully better—futures. Typically, strategic thinkers take their own gut instincts, mix in industry and competitor information, and recollect stories of what worked in the past. These activities validate and confirm past decisions; they speak little to what the future should be.

Once goals and objectives are drafted, work back through each condition or criteria that must be met. Start with… To Be Continued

Notes:
¹ "Explory" is a word I coined for a story that has not yet been told. Derived from "exploratory."
² Although it does not really matter at this point, it will help to distinguish between a goal and an objective. A "goal"  is a general, non-specific direction, for example, "Become the best team in major league sports." An "objective" is focused and measurable, for example, "Achieve 10% market share with 50% margins within the next five-year period."