Here is more evidence calling into question the utility of [overly] simple expert judgment.
"When experts were able to think of at least two analogies, forecast error was reduced by 39%. This structured technique requires experts, and those with more expertise were able to contribute much more to making accurate forecasts."
From “The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts,” by Kesten C. Green of Monash University in Australia and J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Appears in the INFORMS journal Interfaces, Volume 37. no. 3. Link